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With only a few more weeks of winter remaining, some might say that this winter has been a bit harsh – but has it? Just ask meteorologist, author and winter weather expert Paul Kocin, who spoke at Kean University on February 19, 2009 at the request of the Student Chapter of the AMS/NWA (Student Org). His presentation “Northeastern New Jersey Winter Storms in a Changing Climate” brought out a crowd of more than 100 people. The vibrant and often comedic Kocin spoke about previous winter storms as well as current hits and misses. He discussed the associated impacts in the northeastern portion of the nation and shared numerous pictures and weather maps to illustrate each storm’s history.
Kocin, whose books Northeast Snowstorms- Volume 1- Overview; and Volume 2- The Cases written with co-author Dr. Louis Uccellini, Director of NCEP; have become prominent in the professional community. Kocin and Uccellini developed a scale to classify snowstorm intensity on a range of one to five known as the Northeast Snowfall Impact Scale (NESIS). The NESIS allows for emergency managers and others to plan for and manage the multiple hazards and impacts associated with winter storms including: snow, cold, wind, coastal flooding, and their effects on lives and property. Based on this scale three of the top five ranked storms have occurred since 1993 and one of those three was the Blizzard of 1996. If you were looking for another day off from school or work due to a major snowstorm this season, the odds might not be in your favor – but according to Kocin “I’m looking to be surprised.”
So what about this winter we’ve been having? The season began with a late October heavy snow that left places such as High Point, NJ with over 13 inches of snow. Since then temperatures were slightly above normal in December and a few degrees below normal in January. Snowfall for the season has been near normal, but February – typically the snowiest month on average – has seen little of the white stuff. This may be symptomatic as Kocin noted seasonal snowfall totals have trended downwards and we have been seeing much milder winters over the last fifty years. According to Kocin, “The storm is the signal of the change that is going on.”
The free seminar was hosted by the Student Chapter of the AMS/NWA at Kean University. Its mission is to educate the campus community on various atmospheric phenomena such as thunderstorms, hurricanes and lightning through media, print material, guest speakers, and activities. The chapter collected 165 pounds worth of canned goods and non-perishable products in support of the presentation to be donated to the local food bank in Union.
Meteorologist Paul Kocin with students from Kean University
- Surface Map:North Jersey
- Current Conditions:
cheerful
Winter Weather Expert Paul Kocin will be speaking at Kean University on Thursday, February 19th, 2009.
Paul Kocin is a nationally respected research scientist who studies winter weather and notable winter storms. Mr. Kocin co-authored and released the most comprehensive treatment on winter weather in the Northeast, entitled Northeastern Snowstorms-Volume 1- Overview and Volume 2-The Cases.
The event will be held at 7:00 PM in the Center for Academic Success (CAS) room 106. It is asked that bring at least one can of food to be donated to the local community food bank as an admission fee. If attending please contact wheynige@kean.edu as seating is limited to 135 guests. Also check out http://hurri.kean.edu/~keancast/kocin.ht
P.S. Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow so six more weeks of winter???
- Surface Map:North Jersey
- Current Conditions: excited
The wind chill according to Weather.com "is based on the rate of heat loss from exposed skin caused by the effects of wind and cold". The stronger the wind, the faster the body heat can be taken away from you, causing skin temperature to decrease and this is dangerous. Two conditions closely associated to wind chill and cold temperatures are frostbite and hypothermia.
Below is the United States Wind Chill Chart:
When the body is below 95°F hypothermia can set in. According to Weather.com warning signs "uncontrollable shivering, memory loss, disorientation, incoherence, slurred speech, drowsiness, and apparent exhaustion." Seek medical attention immediately and warm the body slowly if medical attention can not be immediately available.
Bundle up and remember to cover your mouth if you do travel outside, covering your mouth protect the lungs from the frigid cold temperatures. Remember your pets too. Don't leave them outside long in this kind of weather!
Wind Chill Forecast for January 14, 2009 posted at 8:00 AM.
Current Wind Chill around the U.S posted 1:11 PM EST
sources: NOAA and Weather.com
- Surface Map:South Jersey
- Current Conditions:
cold
Photo credit: Vincent Jacques, Sky Shows
link
- Current Conditions:
creative
Saturday night (tonight) at sunset take a glance up at the sky, rising in the east you should be able to see the moon appearing extremely large. Tonight's moon is the first full moon of the year and is said to be the biggest and brightest full moon of 2009.
The moon makes a trip around earth every 29.5 days. The apparent size of the moon in the sky changes partly because the orbit is not a perfect circle. Tonight the moon will be a perigee, the closest point to us on its orbit.
It will appear 14 percent bigger in our sky and 30 percent brighter than other full moons of the year.
Tides will be higher also, because the oceans are pulled by gravity of the moon and sun, because the moon is closer we will see higher tides. They are called perigean tides, because of the point in the moons orbit at which they occur.
The month's first full moon is known as the Wolf Moon, from Native American folklore. Each month's full moon is named. January's can also be called Old Moon or the Snow Moon.
The moon will appear largest right after sunset, so get out there and check this out!
Credit:"Saturday Night Special: Biggest Full Moon of 2009"-Robert Britt 09 January 2009
Monday, December 15th
Mostly Cloudy, highs near 60. There's a chance of showers in the afternoon with a 30% chance of precipitation. Southwest wind are expected to reach between 10 to 18 mph.
For Monday night, lows around 40, with showers after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 90% with possible new rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch. South wind at 11 to 15 mph becoming north.
Tuesday, December 16th
Cloudy skies with a high near 43, and showers mainly before the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 60% with new rainfall totals reaching less than a tenth of an inch. North winds between 8 to 13 mph.
for black ice on the roads. There is a 70% change of precipitation with new possible precipitation amounts between a tenth and a quarter of an inch.
Wednesday, December 17th
High near 42, with rain likely and cloudy. There is a 70% chance of precipitation with east winds at 6 to 10 mph becoming south. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and a quarter of an inch possible.
Thursday, December 18th
For Thursday night, there is a 50% chance of rain or snow mix, with cloudy skies and low around 33.
Friday, December 19th
40% chance of rain with cloudy skies. High in the mid 50s.
For Friday night, low around 34 with mostly cloudy skies and 30% chance of rain.
Saturday, December 20th
Expect mostly sunny skies with a high around 45.
For Saturday night, expect a low near 28 with partly cloudy skies.
Sunday, December 21st
Mostly cloudy conditions, with a high near 40. There is a 30% chance of rain and snow mix by the afternoon.
For Sunday night, except rain or snow, before midnight with cloudy skies and low around 23.
Detailed Forecast
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TODAY...AND PASSES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN BRIEFLY BEFORE
LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
THEN RESTORED AGAIN BEFORE THE NEXT STORM PASSES TO THE NORTH
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. source
- Surface Map:North Jersey
- Current Conditions:
blah
Talk about a change in the temperature...
The temperature at Helena, MT, plunged 79 degrees in 24 hours, and 88 degrees in 34 hours. The mercury plummeted from 63 above to 25 below zero. At Fairfield MT the temperature plunged 84 degrees in just 12 hours, from 63 at Noon to 21 below zero at midnight. (David Ludlum)
source: Weather History
This reminds me of a few days ago when the temperature reached 65 degrees for the high in the afternoon and reached to 33 degrees by the night. That's a temp difference of 32 degrees!
Weather Laugh
This would definitely be a sight to see
source
- Current Conditions:
amused
Surface Map of Panhook Storm December 12, 2008
Heavy Rain occurred for most of the East Coast while heavy snow fell in Maine and parts of upstate New York and Canada
Satellite imagery of the storm
What is a Panhandle Hook?
The Panhandle Hook occurs from late Fall through Winter into early Spring and is an intermittent storm system. It's cyclogenesis ( the development or strengthening of a low pressure area a.k.a. the cyclonic circulation in the atmosphere) occurs South to Southwestern US in the Texas and Oklahoma "panhandle" regions. Moving towards the Northeast the Panhandle Hook passes over the Great Lakes, and can affect the Midwestern US due to jet streams moving southwest. They can account for tornado outbreaks in the Midwest and blizzards and heavy snowfall on the Eastern coast as well as Canada.
Noaa
Wikipedia
- Surface Map:North Jersey
- Current Conditions: refreshed
The high of 65 degrees today is not a record though but it came close. The record was set back in 1946 and was 72 degrees. So does does hint a clue about the winter ahead? I'm saying that this is just a rare case of warmer air from the south making its way into the region and by for the rest of the week forecasters have the temperatures settling back into average. It's not to say an odd ball like today can't pop up again as we transition into the winter months. Looking back at the record large snow fall amount on October 28, that High Point, NJ received, or the record Atlantic Hurricane season, one can say that weather throws some curve-balls now an then. I'm feeling that the winter this season will be average even though it's pretty early to tell, though the weather models have shown a pretty consistent trend over the United States. Though with those consistent trends could we see a significant amount of snowfall for our area in the future?????
source: Daily Summary
- Surface Map:Kean University
- Current Conditions: cheerful
source Atmospheric dynamics A Course In Theorectical Meteorology Wilfrod zundawski
- Current Conditions:
calm
It's definitely been feeling like December, the current temp is 34 degrees and the sky is mostly cloudy. Our forecast for tomorrow looks to pleasant for the morning into the afternoon with calm winds and increasing clouds and highs in the lower 40s but for the evening forecasters are predicting lows around 30 and 80% chance of snow with possible new snow accumulation less than half an inch. Snow? It is possible there is enough moisture in the air from these low pressure systems we've seen move into the region from the south and with that warmer moisture and colder temperatures from Canada, though with moisture and cold air it is not always guaranteed it is going to snow. Below is the discussion found on NOAA Website for the North Jersey Region:
" HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING OVERHEAD AND THEN
OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. THAT LOW WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. "
This above paragraph in summary, We will be seeing some fair weather over the region Saturday afternoon but by the night an Alberta Clipper will be approaching. (An Alberta Clipper is a low pressure system southeast out of Alberta, Canada which moves at a fast pace. They move across the Midwest and Great Lakes and light snow, cold temperatures and strong winds, accompany them.) In addition the Alberta Clipper another low developing in the south will move in and intensify over Canada Sunday.
“MOST OF THE AREA WILL PICK UP ABOUT AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION SAT NIGHT/SUN. EASTERN CT COULD PICK UP 1 TO 3 INCHES
AS THAT WILL BE CLOSER TO THE DEEPENING LOW.”
We’ve had a few snow flurries in our region earlier this season and especially the system on October 28th bringing 14 inches to High Point, NJ. For drivers remember with the increasing chance of precipitation and snow and the colder temperatures, the potential for black ice is much greater. Black ice is transparent and commonly forms on roadways, bridges and overpasses are usually the first to freeze. The temperature does not necessarily have to be 32 to freeze and icing has the potential to occur several degrees above the freezing temperature. Drive slowly and give yourself distance between the car in front and back of you. If you happen to find yourself in a skid, DO NOT brake, though this may be your first reaction, braking with cause the brakes to lock up and possibly making the skid worse. What you want to do is take your foot off the gas pedal and gently tap the brake, you also want to turn in the direction of the skid. For more information on winter driving safety check out:
http://www.weather.com/activities/drivin
Stay safe and have fun and maybe soon we’ll be seeing our first real snowfall in our area!
source 1: NOAA.gov
source 2: Weather.com
- Surface Map:North Jersey
- Current Conditions:
sick
Picture of Venus and Jupiter taken from my camera phone. Venus is the bright one seen at the bottom while Jupiter is seen at the top.
Another picture of Venus and Jupiter, disregard the lights on the left hand side.
Magazine Article found in SkyWatch '08
Closer view of the picture
- Surface Map:South Jersey
- Current Conditions: creative
- Current Thunder:"This Christmas" by Chris Brown
It's only November and I've been running way below average the past week....with both highs and lows. The lows are pretty significant because I rarely have a string of days of below average lows. (Here in my nice urban heat island).
My birthday is in about a week and a half (Dec 6) and there's been some recent cold snaps for that date!
For Dec 6th..........
Last year the low was 17! (The coldest low of the season-to-date last year)
For my 15th birthday, we had 15" of snow
I think the year before that we had our first accumulating snow
...so you're probably reading this and saying you could care-less. Right? Welllllll there's a point to this!
If anyone has looked at any models, there's a HUGE amount of Arctic air expected to come down around Dec. 6! It could be record setting! HUGE RECORD SETTING, as in maybe single digits for the NY area?!?! Crazy stuff
Let's see if it holds out....
Any opinions on the cold blast????
- Current Conditions: calm
This event reminds me of a time when my father and I were watching a meteor shower over the summer, in South Jersey. Meteor showers are beautiful, with the meteors and their streaks glistering along the night sky. Well as we were watching we saw this very large glow and the glow was not white but green. We both looked at each other and were amazed at what we just saw. The local news reported on the event and interviewed spectators who had seen the same ball of fire that my dad and I had seen earlier that morning. Some spectators recalled the glow as being orange in color while others were saying white, yellow and green. We saw something that day and though there was no video of it, this recent event was captured on tape and below is that tape:
Keep watching the skies, you never know when a meteor or something may be wanting to make its debut appearance :-)
sources:
Yahoo News
Youtube
- Surface Map:North Jersey
- Current Conditions:
energetic
So yesterday I FINALLY got below freezing, like the rest of the country (yes it took me this long...but I'm finally there, and I did it today too.) Yesterday I had a low of 24 and today I think 27....
We seem to be in a negative NAO. There's also talk about a good snowy, colder than average winter. We're due for one...last winter was pretty mild. There wasn't a lot of snow either...
So the cold air is around to stay. Looking out for the next 2 weeks, it looks like the cold air is around to stay. For me, the cold air is a bit too early, but hey we're getting closer to December and it has been pretty mild recently so I guess it's expected...but I do have one thing to say...
Cold air is wasteful without some type of precipitation! Cold air + precipitation = potential big snowstorm!
With the cold air around, I'm hoping to get some snow for my birthday (12/6). For my 15th birthday, I got 15 inches of snow! It was a pretty good record.
....with all that said, as much as I like winter, I can't wait for some warmer weather!
- Current Conditions: cold
Preliminaries
DEF; A set H is open if there is an open set B such that B is fully contained in A.
DEF THe closure of a set A is the smallest closed set containing A.
DEF: Two topological spaces A and C are said to be homeomorphic if there is a function f from A to B such it is continuous and its inverse is continuous. The function f is a homeomorphism.
Fluid motion
Let A be an open, bounded pointset (occupied by fluid) at t=0. Fluid motion will be defined as a transformation H on the closure of A such that H(A) is occupied by the same fluid at at time t.
Postulate: H has an inverse on H(A).
Postulate: The transformation H is homeomorphic
That fact that H is homeomorphic can be seen by considering water. One cannot cut water with a knife because of the surface tension of water. That fact that H is a homeomorphism is tantamount to the statement that that there will be no holes in the fluid and that the range of H is occupied by the same fluid.
Source: Introduction To mathematical fluid dynamics by Richard E. Meyer
- Current Conditions:
satisfied
OK, first off, if you read my rant on Paloma from earlier in the week, I asked about the name...wellllll I found out (unofficially)
I was watching The Weather Channel and Paul Goodloe said that it's spanish for butterfly....interesting.
Paloma is an intese storm for November. November is usually when the hurricane season begins to wind down, and we have a HURRICANE (possibly major) on our hands. It's expected to move over Cuba (an area hit hard by tropical activity this year).
There's only 3 names left for the year!! I would like to see them named (but not hit anyone) but it's extremely unlikely that will happen.
I also predict Paloma will be the last system of the season....but we never know...just because the season ends Nov. 30, doesn't mean we can't see anything form after that. Tropical activity can happen ANYTIME.
- Current Conditions: calm
Most of this past October had been a typical autumn with cool and sunny weather, temperatures in the 60s, and pleasant fall foliage. Yet an unwelcome early-season Nor’easter pummeled our region on the 28th bringing heavy rain, high winds, and even heavy snow to parts of northern New Jersey, and upstate New York—over one foot of snow in some locations. Most of New Jersey recorded its first snowflakes of the season, including Atlantic City; and brief road closures and slowdowns were common from Interstate 80 to the NJ Turnpike and Route 18 in New Brunswick. High winds gusting to near 70 miles per hour, thunder and lightning, and flooding reports were numerous and led to widespread power outages. The storm had many people thinking it might be the end of January rather than the end of October. Though the white stuff is not unprecedented for our region, the event is very rare in October. High Point, NJ, recorded 14 inches of snow, while parts of Upstate New York received up to 25 inches. Cape May, NJ recorded a wind gust to 66 mph. The storm system resulted when a cold front that brought unseasonably chilly weather to the Eastern half of the nation approached the warm waters off the Mid-Atlantic coast. At its height the storm moved directly through the Newark-New York region and was followed by the coldest air of the season thus far. The storm also drove very cold air into the Deep South, smashing record lows in Florida, with Tallahassee dipping to a frosty 29 degrees, the next morning. The storm also postponed The World Series. While rare, snow has occurred in New Jersey during the month of October. In fact, the most snow to fall in our region (measured at Newark Airport) in October was 0.3 inches in 1952 on the 20th of the month. The earliest snow ever for the same region was October 10th, 1979 – nearly 30 years ago. Does snowfall in October foretell the winter ahead? Of the snows occurring in October at Newark Airport (in 1952, 1957, 1960, 1962, 1965, 1972, and 1979), the winters that followed ranged from one of the warmest and least snowy on record at that time (1972-73) to others that were warm and soggy, cold and dry, and cold and snowy. The month that often provides significant clues to the winter ahead is November.
This story was prepared by Tasha Anderson (Meteorology Major) and Matt Villafane
(Meteorology Major) with assistance and direction from Dr. Paul J. Croft (Meteorology
Faculty). Information is provided through the Center for Earth System Education,
the Department of Geology & Meteorology (http://hurri.kean.edu), at Kean University.
If you would like more information or have questions please call us at 908-737-3728; or
email us at wemapit@kean.edu.
Check out the article here.
- Surface Map:North Jersey
- Current Conditions: rejuvenated
With the symposium the speakers will be discussing ways to prevent cases like this on impacts not just in an urban setting but suburban and rural areas. Though some presentations will focus towards the professional community, many will be focused towards the general public. Activities will be offered for teachers and middle and high school students. There will also be student poster sessions. This is the agenda.
The last to register is November 7th. You can find the link here. There is a $25 fee for the general public and off-campus community as well as middle/secondary schools and non-Kean institutions of higher education. It is free for Kean Students to attend the symposium, and the fee for faculty/staff is $20. Fees can be found in more detail here.
Come check us out, and join us recognizing the challenges of weather and environmental hazards awareness, research and education in NJ.
We care about NJ!
Visit WE CARE for more information.
- Surface Map:North Jersey
- Current Conditions: cheerful
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